Adspend Forecast: 2013 & 2014 Growth
The latest adspend forecasts by ZenithOptimedia and GroupM indicate confidence in the global advertising market in the coming year. Ad spend growths are estimated to be around 3% in 2013, increasing to a higher level of 5% in 2014.
Source: ZenithOptimedia Sep 2013, GroupM Aug 2013By Regions
Both forecasters share the same view that Europe has been the main inhibitor of global ad growth in recent years. But as the region has started to emerge from its 18-month recession in Q2 2013, ad spend in these markets is expected to “gather pace” over the next couple of years.
North America is enjoying a more robust ad spend growth than mature European markets. According to ZenithOptimedia, consumer confidence, retail sales, job numbers and house construction are all “trending encouragingly upwards”. Since the region’s 2012 ad spend growth (4.4%) was due partly to the Summer Olympics and the US presidential elections, the forecaster estimates a more restrained 3.4% growth this year, with a stronger rate of 4.5% in 2014.
Source: GroupM Aug 2013
Overall the two forecasters are unanimous in their view that advertisers’ spend in the BRIC markets remains significant and that investments will be for the long term.
Source: ZenithOptimedia Sep 2013, GroupM Aug 2013 *advertising in printed editions only
Find out more about advertising expenditure and its unique role in the economy here.
Global Adspend Forecasts | 13 vs.12 | 14 vs. 13 |
ZenithOptimedia - All Media | +3.4% | +5.0% |
- Outdoor | +4.3% | +5.9% |
GroupM - All Media | +3.4% | +5.1% |
- Outdoor | +4.2% | +5.4% |
Chicago, USA
The fast growing BRIC markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are currently experiencing slower economic growth. However ZenithOptimedia believes their growing populations will have positive effects on infrastructure growth, productivity levels and adoption of technology, all of which will ultimately boost adspend levels in these markets. GroupM believes that consumer demand and wage growth will remain strong in China, and the forecaster estimates that the country will be the top contributor to new global advertising dollar in 2013 and 2014, together with the following countries:US$’m | Year 2013 | Year 2014 |
1. | China $6,779 | China $8,255 |
2. | USA $2,787 | USA $4,536 |
3. | Brazil $1,668 | Brazil $1,569 |
4. | Japan $1,357 | Japan $1,211 |
5. | Russia $1,170 | Russia $1,185 |
São Paolo, Brazil
By Media According to the September forecasts, the Internet remains the fastest growing medium with an average year-on-year growth level of 15%. However its growth will stay stable through to 2015. Outdoor, in contrast, is predicted to grow faster than All Media from 2013 through to 2015. In the UK, one of the leading markets for Digital Outdoor, digital revenue in Q2 currently takes up 21% of the total Outdoor revenue in the country. This is up from 17% in Q2 last year, the year of the Olympics, demonstrating the growing popularity of the digital platform among advertisers. (Source: Outdoor Media Centre)Year-on-Year Forecast (%) | ZenithOptimedia | GroupM | ||||
| 13 vs. 12 | 14 vs. 13 | 15 vs. 14 | 13 vs. 12 | 14 vs. 13 | 15 vs. 14 |
| All Media | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | NA |
| Outdoor | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | NA |
| Television | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | NA |
-4.8%* | -2.2%* | -1.3%* | -3.2% | -0.5% | NA | |
| Radio | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | NA |
| Cinema | 2.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 1.8% | 5.7% | NA |
| Internet | 15.2% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 14.0% | NA |
London Heathrow Airport, UK